The Fragility of Public Budgets
The signals we are seeing today paradoxically echo those that preceded past major crises. Public debt levels in industrialized countries are alarming:
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United States: $36 trillion (Debt/GDP ratio 120%)
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Italy: ~€3,000 billion (Debt/GDP ratio 137%)
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France: €3,482 billion (Debt/GDP ratio 117%)
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Spain: €1,690 billion (Debt/GDP ratio 102%)
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Germany: €2,553 billion (Debt/GDP ratio 62%)
We live in a society where private capitalists hold astronomical wealth, often in heavily indebted countries. Shifting these burdens to future generations is no longer morally sustainable. Recognizing the necessity of honoring these debts requires deep reflection on preserving value.
Market Warnings and Lack of Diversification
The dark years of the stock markets – from 1987 to 2022 – must serve as a warning. Retail investors often lacked the same opportunities as institutional players, remaining confined to standard stocks or bonds offered by banks and asset managers, without real diversification into commodities like copper, silver, or especially gold.
In Italy, Law No. 7 of January 17, 2000, allows investors to hold investment gold:
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Art. 1: defines investment gold as gold in bars or ingots with a purity of 999.9 thousandths (24 karats) or higher
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Art. 18: regulates authorized entities (banks and intermediaries registered under Art. 107 TUB) operating professionally under the supervision of Banca d’Italia and Consob
📊 Gold: Growth of Invested Capital
Assumption: €10,000 invested in physical gold.
| Investment Year | Gold Price (USD/oz) | 💹 Value After 10 Years (€) | 🔼 10-Year Growth (%) | 💰 Current Value (€) | 🔼 Growth Today (%) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | ~39 $ | 17,500 – 20,000 | +75% – +100% | 850,000 – 1,000,000 | +8,400% – +10,000% | OnlyGold.com |
| 1980 | ~612 $ | 15,000 – 18,000 | +50% – +80% | 55,000 – 65,000 | +450% – +550% | Macrotrends.net |
| 1990 | ~383 $ | 13,500 – 16,000 | +35% – +60% | 28,000 – 33,000 | +180% – +230% | Macrotrends.net |
| 2000 | ~279 $ | 33,000 – 38,000 | +230% – +280% | 38,000 – 45,000 | +280% – +350% | Macrotrends.net |
| 2010 | ~1,224 $ | 25,000 – 28,000 | +150% – +180% | 28,000 – 32,000 | +180% – +220% | Macrotrends.net |
| 2020 | ~1,771 $ | 19,000 – 21,000 | +90% – +110% | 18,000 – 22,000 | +80% – +120% | Macrotrends.net |
🔍 How to Read This Table
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💹 Value After 10 Years: shows the return if the investor sold after a decade
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💰 Current Value: shows growth until 2025 approx.
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🔼 Percentages = growth on the initial €10,000 investment
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Figures do not include inflation, taxes, or storage costs
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Highlights the resilience of gold as a store of value over both short and long periods
💡 Key Insights
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Gold protects capital and shows significant percentage gains over the long term
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Even after 10 years, returns are meaningful, but the greatest benefit comes from long-term holding
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Combining absolute values and percentages helps readers understand the advantages of investing and holding gold over time
Gold: the 6,000-Year Solution
Gold is the ultimate safe-haven asset: it has always preserved purchasing power against devaluation and represents the ultimate guarantee of sovereign debt, stored and protected in central bank vaults.
Owners of physical gold have never suffered systemic crises in the same way as those exposed only to paper debt. Including gold in a portfolio is not just prudent diversification, but a conscious act to protect one’s savings.
Conclusions
We face a transition to a new monetary order. In a context where past certainties (the “dollar-centric system”) are questioned, wealth protection and strategic diversification become essential to navigate global volatility.
🐬 ELBY’s Note
“Public debt dynamics and recurring financial crises confirm that wealth protection can no longer rely on standard approaches. In an increasingly fragile system, understanding the value of real assets means anticipating change, not enduring it.”
✍️ Byline / Signature
Alberto Spagnoli 🐬
Financial Advisor | 50 Years in Banking & Finance
💼 Professional Experience:
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1975–1985: Bank employee, experienced double-digit inflation and oil crises
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1985–Present: Independent financial advisor
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1990: Registered with CONSOB since its establishment, contributing to the professionalization of financial advisory in Italy