City of London – According to U.S. sources, U.S. officials familiar with the discussions say that President Trump recently expressed concerns to his senior advisers about launching military action to overthrow Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, fearing that attacks would fail to force him to step down.
The discussion highlights the administration’s strategy in Venezuela remains unchanged, despite the buildup of military forces in the region and Trump’s public threats of attacks.
What began as an anti-drug campaign with airstrikes against ships suspected of carrying drugs has evolved into the most significant increase in U.S. military power in the Caribbean in decades, now directly aimed at pressuring Maduro and his potential overthrow.
Officials noted that Trump continues to question his advisers about military options, leading some to speculate that the president may eventually order a strike.
Officials currently say Trump is satisfied with the slow buildup of U.S. forces in the region and the continued attacks on vessels allegedly involved in drug trafficking in the Caribbean and the Pacific. The latest such attack occurred on Tuesday, when US forces struck a ship in the eastern Pacific, killing two suspected drug traffickers.
But is the “war” on drug traffickers the reason for the possible US military intervention, or is there something else?
OIL
Venezuela holds the largest oil reserves, representing 17.4% of global reserves.
As of September 2025, oil production was approximately 1.13 million barrels per day, a rising trend. Despite years of sharp declines following the 2021 collapse, production has since increased again, reaching and exceeding 1 million barrels per day.
The government had indicated a goal of reaching 2 million barrels per day, but achieving this goal also depends on the political context and international sanctions.
BRICS
Venezuela has formally expressed interest in joining the BRICS and has applied for membership in the economic grouping. While the BRICS are considering expansion, demand hit a significant hurdle when Brazil blocked it in 2024 due to political disagreements, including issues related to the country’s 2024 elections.
Venezuela views the BRICS as a driving force for a multipolar world and seeks membership to strengthen its position against what it perceives as unfavorable relations with the United States.
Venezuela has offered the BRICS priority access to its oil and gas projects, and bilateral trade between Venezuela and Russia has increased, with Russia diversifying its exports to include high-tech and agricultural products.
This scenario, also taking into account neighboring Guyana, suggests that the fight against drug trafficking could be a futile endeavor, but, in my opinion, the real goal lies elsewhere: oil and the BRICS.
Riccardo Cacelli
uam-vertiports.com
@scenariobyriccardocacelli
VERSIONE IN ITALIANO